Written by on Friday September 17th 2010 in What We're Thinking

Scenario Generator proves Colon Cancer statistics

As reported in the SIMUL8 blog, there was a BBC news published a story this week saying that ‘Colon Cancer Cases May Rise by 50%‘. The shocking headline is based on a forecast published in the European Journal of Cancer stating that in the UK there will be 35,000 new cases a year by 2040, compared with 23,000 a year now if obesity and exercise levels remain static.

The statistic seemed so high, that I built a pathway using Scenario Generator and put demand into the model using forecasted population figures for England and the age banded prevalence of colon cancer. The forecast I produced was 37,000 new cases in the year 2040. Since the data I needed was already integrated in the Scenaio Generator tool, it only took me a few minutes to see that our simulation tool produced almost exactly the same results that the scientists did!

Scenario Generator users can see the model and try it out by visiting the Scenario Generator User Pathways.